Mathias Juust will defend his doctoral thesis „Dynamic effects of trade shocks“

On 18 June at 10:30 Mathias Juust will defend his doctoral thesis „Dynamic effects of trade shocks“ for obtaining the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (in Economics)

Supervisors:
Professor Priit Vahter (PhD), University of Tartu
Professor Urmas Varblane (PhD), University of Tartu

Opponents:
Professor Ari Kokko (PhD), Copenhagen Business School, Denmark

Professor Jože P. Damijan (PhD), University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

Summary
21^st century international trade is shaped by two trending types of trade shocks. As positive shocks, like-minded major economies sign ambitious free trade agreements (FTA) that reduce both tariffs and nontariff barriers. As negative shocks, trade restrictive measures or even sanctions are being increasingly used, sometimes in the service of broader foreign policy goals. As the global economy is facing new uncertainties and principal trade policy choices are in the limelight of mainstream public debates across the world, effects of modern trade shocks require detailed attention. This thesis examines the macro- and micro-level effects of three recent significant instances of trade shocks.
Study I focuses on the case of the EU-South Korea FTA in 2011. The results show that the agreement enhanced EU nominal and value-added export flows to South Korea more than vice versa. The trade dynamics indicate that the removal of industry-specific NTBs played a significant role in the EU automotive export growth.
Study II examines the general negative demand shock that Estonia’s exporters to Russia faced in 2014 following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The findings demonstrate that affected wholesalers showed stronger export performance after the shock than direct exporters. For both wholesalers and direct exporters, trade performance was weaker for firms with lower pre-shock productivity levels.
Study III investigates the effect of Russia’s embargo on Estonia’s food exporters in 2014. The quantitative analysis shows that the post-embargo export and firm performance was stronger for exporters with higher productivity levels. The mixed method multiple case study on three dairy industries that were highly affected by Russia’s embargo demonstrates four firm-level resources and capabilities that determined successful adjustments after the shock: the quality of exporting experience, competitive product-market matching, absorptive capacity, and managerial vision and empowerment.
The defence will be held in Narva Rd. 18–1018 and online

Thesis: https://hdl.handle.net/10062/110827